Insights

For the next two days I'll be at the Thunderbird Global Private Equity Conference. The first couple of presentations have been interesting. Here are some tidbits.


Regarding TARP Money. An executive from a large bank that took money from the TARP had to rescind job offers to several candidates because he was informed that banks who recieve money from TARP can't hire non-U.S. citizens. Ouch. Can you say talent flight?

On the Treasury's new plan. Seems like consensus is that the new proposed partnerships (I know, I promised a post on this and will complete it soon) between the governement, banks, and private money, is a logistical nightmare. I can't say I'm surprised. You have three separate parties trying to establish a "fair" price. And everyone has a different agenda.

More shoes to drop. Not to go into detail, but bond spreads are predicting defaults to go from approximately 5% to 15%. That's not great news for employment, and, by extension, GDP.

China's political backlash. Earlier this week China said it was worried about the solvency of the U.S. That should scare most people. China is the largest holder of U.S. treasuries. If China decides to dump them for a safer investment, we would have massive hyperinlation (I know, that's redundant). I don't think that will happen for two reasons. First, there really aren't any other currencies I can think of that are safer and second, they'd be shooting themselves in the foot. China's GDP is like 50% exported and the U.S. is the largest net buyer. Guess what happens if we can't afford their goods due to our hyperinflation?

More to come.